This isn't for a time-line, but it's something I've been wondering. What would the American Civil War (and 1848 to Civil War United States) look like if we hadn't gotten Texas, New Mexico, and California. I'm sure there would still be a Civil War, but probably not at the same time. Also what would the southern states do without the new South-West front to expand into? Would they start going north into the Indian, Nebraska, and Oregon territories? Thoughts?
American Civil War without addition of Mexican Territory
- Thread starter orion
- Start date
Well Texas would be independent anyhow, but I figure after the South loses, and they still lose, many Confederates simply go to Texas. But here's another question, what makes you think the Civil War didn't just get butterflied away?
Of course the South would lose, there would need to be some serious ASBs to make them even still exist. By the 1840s I would reckon that there was enough of a conflict between slave states and free states that a conflict would be bound to arise. I was also thinking about a situation before that though, like if somehow Spain kept the region longer, or if Mexico didn't allow American settlement.
Anaxagoras
Banned
Without the cession of Mexican territory, I think it quite likely that the war would be entirely butterflied away. Remember, the fierce political battles of the 1850s were not about slavery in and of itself, but about whether slavery would be allowed to expand into at least part of the newly-acquired territory. If there is no such territory, then the fire-eaters in South Carolina don't have anything to become enraged about every day of the week and twice on Sunday and therefore you have enough time for compromises that will maintain the peace until slavery begins to whither for purely economic reasons.
There was always the Unorganized territory. I'm sure there would have been arguments over that. If slavery was also not allowed to expand there could have also been an earlier secession.
orion brings up a good point, without Texas as the southwest, the slave states would feel even more constrained about how slavery can't spread.
In any case, an independent Texas full of hardline ex-Confederates would've been an *interesting* place. Would make for an interesting time line, maybe getting enough KKK types to head over there would've given the Reconstruction a better shot in the rest of the South...
In any case, an independent Texas full of hardline ex-Confederates would've been an *interesting* place. Would make for an interesting time line, maybe getting enough KKK types to head over there would've given the Reconstruction a better shot in the rest of the South...
Wolfpaw
Banned
They wouldn't leave for Texas, they'd just use it as a supply dump and safe-haven to direct their klownery in the konkered Konfederacy.
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Would be interesting - however, that would violate several Mexican laws on the books (even more so once we get to the 1857 Mexican Constitution, which absolutely prohibits slavery), so that could cause a problem with the rurales.
Grey Wolf
Donor
The Mexican constitution wouldn't be an issue since the question put to referendum was full independence recognised by Mexico (which Britain has forced on them) or request annexation by the USA. If they either lose the latter vote or they don't hold one, then they are fully independent.
Without the Mexican War of course, any future Civil War is going to be led more by those with Indian fighting experience than by the generation of officers who fought against Mexico
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
One might find a very different West Coast. I think you could avoid the war with Mexico by having the Texans accept the British proposals for guarantees on their independence in exchange for relinquishing claims on modern New MExico, maybe with a boundary at the Nueces - Pecos rivers in the South and the Red River in the north with the northernmost claims bought out. I suspect the Mormons will seek to purchase territory or at least rights of occupation/settlement including modern Utah, western Colorado along the lines of the Mexican claim, south to the Arizona river, and west to some undetermined point - maybe a near-approximation of modern Nevada and eastern California? With the discovery of gold in Northern California there will be an influx of foreign and especially American settlement, Washington will be eager to control the area for at least everything north of Monterrey, leaving the Central Valley to the Mormons or Mexico. If Mexico decides it needs money in a hurry they might do a deal with Texas or the Mormons as the riches of California would exceed the potential rewards for either alternate location.
The American Civil War would likely be avoided but as time passed the Texans would perhaps keep slavery alive, leading to an emigration from the United States should the practice be outlawed there probably about 1870 (+/-5 years). Money and workers will come into Texas while the cattle industry will develop. I could also see Louisiana and Arkansas politicians discussing secession to join Texas but this would not likely pass. What might work is a wealthier Texas offering to buy the Indian Territory from the United States for a nice sum, expanding the fledgling Republic. If Mexico falters on her debts as per OTL about 1862 and is still struggling with the prospects of what to do with Mormons in Utah, Texas as a whole, and any number of affairs in California, then the entirety of southern North America will look very different by 1870.
One possible scenario in 1870:
An independent California inclusive of much of her OTL borders save the easternmost part of the state down to about 35 degrees north latitude is prospering. It is a UK-backed government out of San Francisco whose gold seems to disproportionately end up in London while Washington has a great deal of influence as well. There is a Mormon theocratic Republic of Deseret running from the eastern edge of the Sierra Nevada to the Colorado River and along the San Juan river covering much of what is OTL western and southern Colorado. Texas is an independent republic that bought the Republic of Mexico's claim to everything east of the Rio Grande at her nadir with Maximillian's Empire and follows that river as its boundary to the Gulf of Mexico. Austin makes no secret of its hunger for even more land and seems to have her eye on every Mexican state on her southern border along with Sonora, Chihuahua, Baja California, the leftovers of Alta California, and even Sinaloa and Durango. Her newfound wealth from cattle and cotton via significant immigration from the Southern United States triggered an economic depression there when the 1868 Lincoln Amendment to the Constitution was passed. Texas has also made overtures to purchase the Indian Territory and is in negotiations with the United States who seem quite amenable to its transfer.
Mormons are weary of outsiders but perimt their passage through the Republic of Deseret in exchange for a toll along the California Trail. With the United States feverishly building a railroad from Independence MO to Portland Oregon expected to be finished no later than 1872, Salt Lake City officials have wisely begun building their own from the border town of Denver, RoD to a new community at Lake Tahoe known as Youngstown. With European immigration to all of the above increasing and Texas eyeing land on the Pacific Ocean, there is little central government in the border areas to say what law there are or are not. With the very recent conclusion of the Civil War in Mexico in favor of Juarez, who may now seek to consolidate power from the semi-feudal and semi-independent governors in the northern states/territories, anything is possible. The departure of Empress Carlotta and her now 2-year-old son Augustin also means that there is a blood heir to the throne of Mexico. Despite Maximillian's execution he might return someday to claim his place as leader of Mexico as he is very safe in Belgium under the eyes of a very protective grandfather.
The American Civil War would likely be avoided but as time passed the Texans would perhaps keep slavery alive, leading to an emigration from the United States should the practice be outlawed there probably about 1870 (+/-5 years). Money and workers will come into Texas while the cattle industry will develop. I could also see Louisiana and Arkansas politicians discussing secession to join Texas but this would not likely pass. What might work is a wealthier Texas offering to buy the Indian Territory from the United States for a nice sum, expanding the fledgling Republic. If Mexico falters on her debts as per OTL about 1862 and is still struggling with the prospects of what to do with Mormons in Utah, Texas as a whole, and any number of affairs in California, then the entirety of southern North America will look very different by 1870.
One possible scenario in 1870:
An independent California inclusive of much of her OTL borders save the easternmost part of the state down to about 35 degrees north latitude is prospering. It is a UK-backed government out of San Francisco whose gold seems to disproportionately end up in London while Washington has a great deal of influence as well. There is a Mormon theocratic Republic of Deseret running from the eastern edge of the Sierra Nevada to the Colorado River and along the San Juan river covering much of what is OTL western and southern Colorado. Texas is an independent republic that bought the Republic of Mexico's claim to everything east of the Rio Grande at her nadir with Maximillian's Empire and follows that river as its boundary to the Gulf of Mexico. Austin makes no secret of its hunger for even more land and seems to have her eye on every Mexican state on her southern border along with Sonora, Chihuahua, Baja California, the leftovers of Alta California, and even Sinaloa and Durango. Her newfound wealth from cattle and cotton via significant immigration from the Southern United States triggered an economic depression there when the 1868 Lincoln Amendment to the Constitution was passed. Texas has also made overtures to purchase the Indian Territory and is in negotiations with the United States who seem quite amenable to its transfer.
Mormons are weary of outsiders but perimt their passage through the Republic of Deseret in exchange for a toll along the California Trail. With the United States feverishly building a railroad from Independence MO to Portland Oregon expected to be finished no later than 1872, Salt Lake City officials have wisely begun building their own from the border town of Denver, RoD to a new community at Lake Tahoe known as Youngstown. With European immigration to all of the above increasing and Texas eyeing land on the Pacific Ocean, there is little central government in the border areas to say what law there are or are not. With the very recent conclusion of the Civil War in Mexico in favor of Juarez, who may now seek to consolidate power from the semi-feudal and semi-independent governors in the northern states/territories, anything is possible. The departure of Empress Carlotta and her now 2-year-old son Augustin also means that there is a blood heir to the throne of Mexico. Despite Maximillian's execution he might return someday to claim his place as leader of Mexico as he is very safe in Belgium under the eyes of a very protective grandfather.
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Without the Mexican territories to potentially expand slavery into, there will be pressure to expand into the Caribbean instead by the slavepower instead. So it'd either be war with Spain, or more active support for filibuster attempts in Central America. Neither idea bodes well for the US as the US is not powerful enough to challenge a European naval power, nor is the tropical climate well suited for Americans.
Grey Wolf
Donor
Mexico is going to be in a completely different political situation if it retains its Northern territories, especially if it holds onto California. For a start it won't have lost a war and had its capital bombarded and occupied. Being as this IS Mexico, its not definite that this is going to make it stable - it could just be unstable in a different way! But its highly unlikely that it is going to go along OTL's path, and thus see default, foreign intervention, and a Habsburg on the throne!
Thus, an independent CSA is not going to need to "intervene"
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
Thus, an independent CSA is not going to need to "intervene"
Best Regards
Grey Wolf
There are still issues between the south and north, even without the problem of spreading slavery into new territories... the south is rapidly losing political power in DC due to burgeoning immigration into the north; the House in already lost to them, the new states remaining to be made out of the LA Purchase and Oregon regions are likely to be free states (which will cost them the Senate), and a growing north will elect Presidents soon. Plus, there is the issue over tariffs as well. In general, there is a vast cultural divide between north and south, and a general demonizing of each side by the other.
Also, if the USA doesn't gain the Mexican territories ever, there is a whole raft of PODs there, starting with the fact that the USA will be a lot poorer without the gold and silver of the SW and the ports of CA.... also, there will be less room for the new immigrants to settle.
Also, if the USA doesn't gain the Mexican territories ever, there is a whole raft of PODs there, starting with the fact that the USA will be a lot poorer without the gold and silver of the SW and the ports of CA.... also, there will be less room for the new immigrants to settle.